UK Economy Beats Expectations With 0.7% Rise in Q1

GDP rose 0.2% in March alone, slowing from 0.5% in February but still beating an FXStreet consensus for no growth in the month.

Ollie Smith 15 May, 2025 | 8:11AM
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The UK economy grew at a faster pace than anticipated in the first quarter of 2025, while the goods and services trade deficit narrowed further from the previous quarter.

According to the Office for National Statistics, UK gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the quarter from January to March. This is accelerated from a 0.1% growth in the prior quarter and outperforms an FXStreet-cited consensus for 0.6% growth.

This was driven by a 0.7% rise in the services sector and a 1.1% increase in production, noted the ONS. The construction sector showed no growth.

On-year, GDP in the first quarter was up 1.3%, beating a 1.2% FXStreet consensus. It slowed from 1.5% on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.

GDP rose 0.2% in March alone, slowing from 0.5% in February but still beating an FXStreet consensus for no growth in the month.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three-month period, following two consecutive quarterly declines.

Export volumes increased by 3.5%, following three consecutive quarterly declines, driven by a 5.6% rise in goods exports and a 2.0% growth in services exports.

Import volumes were up 2.1% in the first quarter, boosted by 0.6% and 5.2% rises in goods and services imports respectively.

Separate figures from the ONS showed the total goods and services trade deficit narrowed by £3.6 billion to a deficit of £6.6 billion in the three months to March.

The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £4.3 billion to £55.2 billion in the first quarter, while the trade in services surplus is estimated to have narrowed by around £700 million to £48.6 billion.

Imports from non-EU countries fell by £600 million, or 2.5%, while imports from the EU increased by £200 million, or 0.9%.

Exports of goods to the US increased for its fourth consecutive month with a £2.4 billion rise in the first quarter. Imports of goods from the US rose £1.3 billion.


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Ollie Smith

Ollie Smith  is senior editor for Morningstar UK

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