Editor's Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.
Key Morningstar Metrics for Ocado Group
- Fair Value Estimate: GBX 231
- Morningstar Rating: ★★★
- Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
- Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High
The bottom line: We reinitiate coverage with a GBX 231 fair value estimate and lower Ocado’s Capital Allocation Rating to Standard from Exemplary. We maintain our Very High Uncertainty Rating and our belief that Ocado OCDO has no moat. The shares appear fairly valued.
We see structural disadvantages in Ocado’s solutions business that have contributed to initial growth expectations failing to materialize. In addition, there are a growing number of substitute offerings that are a fraction of the price with a shorter time to market, which we see dominant grocers adopting.
We expect Ocado to generate positive earnings by fiscal 2029. However, significant execution risks lie ahead, which underpin our Very High Uncertainty Rating.
Coming up: In fiscal 2025, Ocado expects 10% revenue growth and 20%-25% EBITDA margin in the solutions business. In the logistics business, Ocado projects mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth and EBITDA of £30 million.
We think margin expansion will be largely supported by scaling back operating costs.
Ocado expects to have 150 live modules by the end of 2027, from 116 today. This is a significant reduction from its 2022 guidance of 300 live modules by 2027.
Long view: We project online grocery penetration will increase to 25% by 2040 across developed markets, from high single digits in Western Europe and low teens in the United Kingdom in 2024. Ocado must successfully launch systems on time to capture its share of the pie.
We project revenue to grow at a 12% compound annual rate to 2029, roughly in line with the average online grocery growth expected across partner markets.
Ocado has a concentrated client base, with the majority of revenue from Ocado Retail and Kroger. Signed partners are rethinking commitments, creating uncertainty about the future state of Ocado’s installed base.
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