Where Are Europe’s Most Undervalued and Overvalued Stock Markets?

Uneven performance in 2025 leaves nine European countries trading below their fair values.

Fernando Luque 3 June, 2025 | 9:37AM
Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

Collage-ilustrado con un euromunt, un wolkenkrabber y elementos gráficos a mano.

European stocks have been booming. In the first five months of 2025 alone, the Morningstar Europe Index has already risen by 9.8% in euros. And that follows on from the 8.7% gains made in 2024 and 15.5% rise achieved in 2023.

While European markets have been delivering stellar returns for investors, carefully choosing which stocks you invest remain important, because the performance of Europe’s markets has not been even across the board.

There is now a gap between the best-performing and worst-performing European markets and that is also reflected in the relative valuations of Morningstar country indexes.

Best and Worst Performing European Markets

Among the major European national indexes, the Morningstar Germany Index, for example, gained 19.3%, while the Morningstar France and Morningstar UK indexes rose by around 8%.

The returns of the best-performing and worst-performing European markets are widely dispersed. Top-performing Spain and second-place Italy achieved returns of 26.0% and 20.7% respectively, while last-place Denmark suffered a 12.4% slump.

 

Most European Stock Markets Are Undervalued

In terms of valuation, there are also notable differences between European markets. The Morningstar Europe Index traded at a price/fair value of 0.98 on May 28. A price/fair value below 1 means that the asset is undervalued, while a price/fair value above 1 indicates that the asset is overvalued. Therefore, taking the European market as a whole, considering the market capitalization of each company, it is actually undervalued by 2%.

And, when we analyze the valuations by country, again we find significant differences, as shown in the chart below.

Italy and Spain are the Most Overvalued European Markets

The financial sector makes up a significant proportion of the value of both markets: 45.4% in Italy and 38.1% in Spain. The financial sector is the European sector that has risen the most in the first five months of the year, with a gain of 23.1%.

The largest bank stocks in these two countries have risen even more: Italy’s UniCredit UCG has achieved a return of 50.4% while Spain’s Banco Santander SAN has risen by 59.9%.

Key Morningstar Metrics for UniCredit UCG

Analyst: Johann Scholtz, CFA


Key Morningstar Metrics for Banco Santander SAN

Analyst: Johann Scholtz, CFA


Netherlands and Denmark Most Undervalued European Markets

At the other end of the spectrum, we find the Netherlands and Denmark, with undervaluations of 10% and 14%, respectively. The one factor that both these markets have in common is that their stock markets depend heavily on the performance of a single company, and neither of those has performed well so far this year.

In the case of the Netherlands, the semiconductor company ASML Holding ASML, which accounts for more than 30% of the Morningstar Netherlands index has seen its stock fall 2.1% in euros so far this year. Meanwhile Denmark’s Novo Nordisk NOVO B, the pharmaceuticals giant which makes up 46% of the Morningstar Denmark index, has seen its stock fall 26.1% in Danish kroner over the same period.

Both stocks are currently undervalued by more than 20% and have a Morningstar Rating of 4 stars. Morningstar analysts start by comparing a stock’s fair value estimate to its current trading price (to determine its price/fair value estimate) and then take the Uncertainty Rating into account. From there, they assign a stock a rating between 1 to 5 stars: 4 or 5 stars means the stock is undervalued, and trading at a discounted price to its fair value estimate.

Key Morningstar Metrics for ASML Holding ASML

Analyst: Javier Correonero


Key Morningstar Metrics for Novo Nordisk NOVO B

Analyst: Karen Andersen, CFA



The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar's editorial policies.

The information contained within is for educational and informational purposes ONLY. It is not intended nor should it be considered an invitation or inducement to buy or sell a security or securities noted within nor should it be viewed as a communication intended to persuade or incite you to buy or sell security or securities noted within. Any commentary provided is the opinion of the author and should not be considered a personalised recommendation. The information contained within should not be a person's sole basis for making an investment decision. Please contact your financial professional before making an investment decision.

Facebook Twitter LinkedIn

About Author

Fernando Luque

Fernando Luque  is Senior Financial Editor at Morningstar Spain 

© Copyright 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Modern Slavery Statement        Cookie Settings        Disclosures

OSZAR »